------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supermassive Black Hole Studies with the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) A Meeting-in-a-Meeting (MiM) as part of the 236th Meeting of the AAS June 1-3, 2020 Being Held Remotely and Synchronously Owing to the COVID-19 Pandemic Franklin E. Kameny Remote Meeting Room ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------- OVERALL DESCRIPTION ------------------- The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), to be conducted at the Vera Rubin Observatory beginning in 2023, will enable studies of the growing supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) on a truly massive scale. The tens of millions of AGNs discovered will be used for powerful studies of, e.g., the AGN luminosity function, AGN growth across varied cosmic environments, the highest redshift AGNs, AGN variability of many types, and transient SMBH fueling events. The LSST AGN Science Collaboration, currently composed of more than 50 members spanning the globe, will lead many investigations of AGNs with LSST and supporting multiwavelength data. The time to prepare for AGN science with the petabyte deluge of LSST data is now, and this Meeting-in-a-Meeting (MiM) aims to stimulate such preparation. Specifically, this MiM has the following main goals: (1) Provide outreach to the broad AAS membership, so that additional astronomers with interest can learn about the AGN science opportunities with LSST and consider joining the AGN Science Collaboration; (2) Allow in-depth presentation and critical discussion of exciting planned LSST and related AGN science projects; (3) Enable practical planning, coordination, and resource preparation so that these science projects can be executed successfully; and (4) Allow discussion and assessment of the currently evolving LSST observing strategy (e.g., cadence, total depth, footprints), so that key feedback can be provided to the LSST Project. The MiM program will include 16 talks, each of 30 min duration including time for questions/discussion. The program will begin with a brief review of the LSST Science Collaborations and the LSST AGN Science Collaboration, including its ongoing activities and future plans. This will be followed by talks on AGN selection and characterization using LSST and supporting data, including the science that will be performed with the massive resulting AGN samples. There will then be talks on AGN variability studies using LSST data, including general variability characterization, transient SMBH phenomena, reverberation mapping, and changing-look AGNs. A forward-looking summary, discussion session, and potential hack session will conclude the MiM. This meeting is part of the activities of the LSST AGN Science Collaboration - see https://agn.science.lsst.org/ For attendance, registration for the AAS 236 meeting is required. For questions or additional information, please email W. Niel Brandt (wnbrandt@gmail.com). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---------------- PLANNED SCHEDULE ---------------- Note that all times in this schedule are in USA Eastern time. --------------------------------------------------------- Supermassive Black Hole Studies with the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST): Introduction --------------------------------------------------------- 1. The LSST Science Collaborations Federica Bianco (Univ of Delaware) I will review the structure, workings, and status of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time Science Collaborations and their role and purpose in the larger Rubin Observatory ecosystem. I will focus on the synergy between the AGN and other SCs, including shared challenges and needs. fedhere@gmail.com Session and Talk: 103.01 - June 1 (Monday) 11:00-11:30 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: W.N. Brandt ----- 2. The LSST AGN Science Collaboration W. Niel Brandt (Penn State) The Vera Rubin Observatory and Legacy Survey of Space and Time will enable studies of the growing supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) on a truly massive scale. After a brief review of the LSST surveys from an AGN perspective, I will describe the details of the LSST AGN Science Collaboration, its ongoing activities, and its future plans. I will also describe how general members of the American Astronomical Society and worldwide astronomical community can become involved with the LSST AGN Science Collaboration. wnbrandt@gmail.com Session and Talk: 103.02 - June 1 (Monday) 11:30-12:00 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: W.N. Brandt ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------- Supermassive Black Hole Studies with the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST): AGN Selection and Characterization --------------------------------------------------------- 3. AGN Selection Using Multiple Data Types Gordon Richards (Drexel University), Weixiang Yu (Drexel University) We will discuss efforts to develop a training set and algorithms for AGN/quasar selection from LSST imaging data. We are building multiple training sets, one in SDSS Stripe 82 and the other in the XMM-LSS area of the sky. These areas provide excellent multi-wavelength and time-domain coverage. The training sets will include colors, variable light curves, proper motion, differential chromatic refraction, multi-wavelength data, morphology etc. as features/attributes that can be used to develop selection algorithms that are optimally complete and free from non-AGN contamination. Currently we are exploring off-the-shelf algorithms (e.g., using SciKit-Learn); however, the size of the LSST data set and complexity of the problem will likely require further algorithm development. SciServer.org is being used as the platform for this work. We will demonstrate how users can access the training data themselves and apply standard machine learning algorithms to it within the SciServer framework. gtr@physics.drexel.edu Session and Talk: 103.03 - June 1 (Monday) 12:00-12:30 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: W.N. Brandt ----- 4. AGN science with Hyper Suprime-Cam, and what it can teach us about the LSST Michael A. Strauss, Princeton University Hyper Suprime-Cam is a 1.77 deg^2 camera on the Prime Focus of the 8.2-m Subaru Telescope on the summit of Maunakea in Hawai'i. A consortium of astronomers from Japan, Taiwan and Princeton University are carrying out a 330-night, three-layer imaging survey in five broad bands (grizy) covering over 1000 deg^2. The survey reaches to r~26, about a magnitude shallower than LSST will reach. In many ways, these data are an LSST precursor, and is teaching us valuable lessons about the opportunities and challenges we will face once LSST data begin to flow. I will touch on some of those lessons in the AGN context, discussing studies of high-redshift (z=6-7) low-luminosity quasars, host galaxies of quasars, and other topics as time allows. strauss@astro.princeton.edu Session and Talk: 117.01 - June 1 (Monday) 2:50-3:20 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: W.N. Brandt ----- 5. The XMM-SERVS Survey of the LSST Deep Drilling Fields Qingling Ni (Pennsylvania State University), William Brandt (Pennsylvania State University), Chien-Ting Chen (Marshall Space Flight Center), and the XMM-SERVS collaboration The LSST project has selected W-CDF-S, ELAIS-S1, XMM-LSS, and COSMOS as deep-drilling fields (DDFs); these will each cover 10 deg^2 to very great depths over thousands of epochs, enabling AGN selection and characterization with rich information. X-ray coverage could play an important role in the selection of AGNs among LSST DDFs, as X-ray selected AGNs can serve as a ground-truth sample of AGNs that can be used to train the AGN selection. Also, X-ray coverage is essential in characterizing the AGN activity. Before the XMM-SERVS survey, only COSMOS has been covered with sufficiently deep X-ray observations in a ~2 deg^2 area among the four selected LSST DDFs; the X-ray coverage in the remaining three DDFs is not sufficiently wide/deep. The ongoing XMM-SERVS survey will contribute to the AGN selection and characterization in LSST DDFs by providing a ~50 ks depth X-ray coverage in an area of 12 deg^2 with XMM-Newton. The 50 ks depth was chosen to probe to ~ 10-30 times below the Lx* (the knee luminosity of the X-ray luminosity function) at z = 0.5-2.5 to sample the dominant AGN populations producing the bulk (~ 70%) of cosmic accretion power. At higher redshifts, we will still be able to reach to a few times below Lx* to detect luminous AGNs. With the XMM-SERVS survey, we expect to find ~12000 AGNs in W-CDF-S, ELAIS-S1, and XMM-LSS, which will be used to train different LSST AGN selection algorithms (that could be further applied to the LSST main survey). qxn1@psu.edu Session and Talk: 117.02 - June 1 (Monday) 3:20-3:50 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: W.N. Brandt ----- 6. AGN Detection and Characterisation Through Optical Variability: The Lessons Learned from VST SN Surveys M. Paolillo (Univ.of Naples Federico II), D.De Cicco (Univ.Catolica de Chile), W. N. Brandt (Penn State Univ.), F. E. Bauer (Univ.Catolica de Chile), F. Vagnetti (Univ. of Roma Tor Vergata), M.T. Botticella (INAF Oss. di Capodimonte), G. Pignata (Univ. Andres Bello), M. Vaccari (University of Cape Town), G. Covone (Univ.of Naples Federico II), P. Schipani (INAF Oss. di Capodimonte) and the SUDARE-VOICE collaboration I will present the AGN variability surveys performed with the VST telescopes in the CDFS and COSMOS regions. I will describe how these datasets can be used as precursor test sets to predict the expected Vera Rubin Telescope performance, based on the similarities and differences in terms of depth and cadence. I will highlight the main difficulties encountered in the data analysis and scientific exploitation of the data, in order to characterise the AGN population and understand the selection biases with respect to optical/infrared/X-ray selection methods. Finally I will show some results on the AGN structure function that will definitely be improved by the DDF surveys. paolillo@na.infn.it Session and Talk: 117.03 - June 1 (Monday) 3:50-4:20 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: W.N. Brandt ----- 7. Variable AGN Selection Toward the LSST Era D. De Cicco (Instituto Milenio de Astrofisica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile), F. E. Bauer (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Instituto Milenio de Astrofisica), M. Paolillo (University of Napoli "Federico II"), P. Sanchez Saez (Instituto Milenio de Astrofisica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile), S. Cavuoti (University of Napoli "Federico II"), W. N. Brandt (The Pennsylvania State University), G. Longo (University of Napoli "Federico II"), and the SUDARE-VOICE Collaboration I will discuss AGN selection methods based on optical variability and applied to the VST-COSMOS field. VST images have a single-visit depth of r ~ 24.6 mag, which makes our dataset particularly interesting in the context of studies aimed at LSST performance forecasting. I will compare results from a more classic approach, where a candidate sample is selected on the sole basis of light curve r.m.s., to results obtained from a random forest-based selection. I will also discuss the effect of different baselines, cadence, bands, and depths on AGN detection efficiency, and show expected results from color selection. demetradecicco@gmail.com Session and Talk: 202.01 - June 2 (Tuesday) 11:00-11:30 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: G.T. Richards ----- 8. High-Redshift Quasar Surveys in the LSST Era X. Fan (Univ of Arizona) The highest redshift quasars provide direct probes to the evolution of the earliest supermassive black holes and the history of cosmic reionzation. LSST data will enable discoveries of hundreds of quasars at z > 7. However, the selection and followup identification of these quasars are challenging. I will first review the progress of reionization-era quasar surveys in recent years, highlight both key results in early black hole growth and reionziation, as well as reflect on the lessons learned in survey design and followup observations. I will then present forecast of high-redshift quasar discovery by combining LSST and other upcoming near-IR sky surveys, and discuss strategy in constructing a large statistical sample from these data. Session and Talk: 202.02 - June 2 (Tuesday) 11:30-12:00 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: G.T. Richards ----- 9. Preparing for LSST: Lessons and Data from the QUEST Survey Paolo Coppi (Yale University) The QUEST survey operated in various incarnations from ~1998-2016 using large CCD cameras mounted on 1m-class Schmidt telescopes. I will review some of the sometimes painful lessons learned in searching for AGN in this data. The incarnation most useful to LSST is likely to be the La Silla QUEST survey. Like LSST, this survey was based in the South. It covered ~25,000 square degrees of sky down to V~21 using a rolling supernova search cadence, sometimes with more visits than LSST will provide in a nominal ten years of operation. We have received NSF funding to clean up this data set, and I will solicit advice on how to make it most useful to the collaboration. More generally, by combining past and ongoing wide-area optical surveys like QUEST, PTF, ZTF, and CRTS with surveys at other wavelengths (e.g., radio and X-ray), I will argue that we already have enough data to start doing LSST-level science on objects at the bright end of the LSST magnitude range, V~17-21. Doing so would allow us to hit the ground running when LSST starts. Because it is easily accessible to 4m telescopes, note that this magnitude range is also likely to have the most repeated optical spectroscopy in the LSST era. paolo.coppi@yale.edu Session and Talk: 202.03 - June 2 (Tuesday) 12:00-12:30 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: G.T. Richards ----- 10. AGN Photometric Redshifts in LSST Roberto J. Assef, Universidad Diego Portales LSST will revolutionize our view of AGNs. Millions of these objects will be identified during the lifetime of the survey, and many more will be observed without identification. Spectroscopic follow-up will only likely happen in the foreseeable future for a small fraction of these AGNs, yet many applications will require accurate and/or unbiased redshift estimates. In this talk I will discuss the efforts of the photo-z subgroup of the LSST AGN Science Collaboration. I will give a general overview of the activities of the SG, as well as of the challenges identified that will need to be overcome to maximize the AGN science output in LSST. roberto.assef@mail.udp.cl Session and Talk: 218.01 - June 2 (Tuesday) 2:50-3:20 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: G.T. Richards ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------- Supermassive Black Hole Studies with the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST): Variability Studies --------------------------------------------------------- 11. AGN Variability Studies in the Context of the ALeRCE Project Paula Sanchez-Saez, Millennium Institute for Astrophysics (MAS), Pontificia Univ Catolica de Chile; Franz Bauer, Pontificia Univ Catolica de Chile, Millennium Institute for Astrophysics (MAS); Demetra de Cicco, Millennium Institute for Astrophysics (MAS), Pontificia Univ Catolica de Chile; On behalf of the ALeRCE collaboration With a new generation of large etendue survey telescopes there is a growing need for astronomical alert processing systems. These systems involve the real-time processing of data for alert generation, real-time annotation and classification of alerts (up to 10 million events per night) and real-time reaction to interesting alerts using available astronomical resources. We are building a new alert classification and reaction system called ALeRCE: Automatic Learning for the Rapid Classification of Events. ALeRCE is currently processing the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert stream in preparation to become an official broker for the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In this talk I will present the ALeRCE project, and the current status of the late classifier of ALeRCE, that uses a hierarchical imbalanced Random Forest and variability features computed from ZTF light curves, to classify each source into more than 15 subclasses, including three classes of AGNs (host-dominated, core-dominated, and Blazar). I will also present future projects that ALeRCE is planning to carry out using the ZTF and LSST alert streams, including the selection of Changing-State AGN, selection of Intermediate Mass Black Holes, and studies of the connection between the AGN variability and black hole physical properties. pasanchezsaez@gmail.com Session and Talk: 218.02 - June 2 (Tuesday) 3:20-3:50 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: G.T. Richards ----- 12. Southern Changing-Look AGN from the Skymapper Surveys and Prospects for LSST Rachel Webster (University of Melbourne), Wei Jeat Hon (University of Melbourne), Christain Wolf (Australian National University), Katie Auchettl (University of Melbourne) LSST will provide an extraordinary opportunity to monitor variable AGN, and in particular, detect rare and major changes in AGN luminosity. Recent studies suggest that Changing-look AGN which show rapid changes in their broad emission line and blue continuum emission are more likely in AGN with low Eddington ratios. We will use existing southern sky surveys, including the Skymapper and Taipan Surveys, to establish a targeted source list of AGN to facilitate studies of the Changing-look phenomenon with the LSST. r.webster@unimelb.edu.au Session and Talk: 218.03 - June 2 (Tuesday) 3:50-4:20 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: G.T. Richards ----- 13. Direct Modeling of AGN Optical Variability Using Continuous-Time ARMA Processes Weixiang Yu (Drexel), Jackeline Moreno (Drexel), Gordon Richards (Drexel), Michael Vogeley (Drexel) AGNs are known to exhibit aperiodic, stochastic optical variability on timescales from days to years, with a typical amplitude ranging from 5% to 50% around the mean flux. Recent and future deep time-domain surveys offer a unique opportunity to probe the physics driving this (still poorly understood) variability through direct modeling of AGN light curves using Continuous-time ARMA (CARMA) processes. I will present what we learned from applying this method to high-cadence SDSS and CRTS light curves of AGNs discovered in the Stripe 82 region and demonstrate how such modeling can assist AGN classification in LSST. Lastly, I will discuss how the upcoming LSST survey will open up new windows for investigation of AGN variability using direct modeling methods. wy73@drexel.edu Session and Talk: 301.01 - June 3 (Wednesday) 11:00-11:30 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: W.N. Brandt ----- 14. AGN Broad-line Reverberation Mapping with the SDSS-V Black Hole Mapper in the Era of LSST Yue Shen, for the SDSS-V BHM team The echo between AGN continuum variability and the response from broad emission lines can be used to map the structure and kinematics of the spatially-unresolved broad-line region, and to estimate the black hole mass of the AGN. Modern multi-object spectroscopic surveys have enabled broad-line reverberation mapping on industrial scales, targeting hundreds to thousands of AGN at the same time to expand the redshift-luminosity range of reverberation mapped AGN with high observing efficiency. The LSST survey will provide high-quality continuum light curves for large statistical samples of AGN, for which multi-object spectroscopic monitoring will perform efficient reverberation mapping. I will describe such an effort with the Black Hole Mapper program within the SDSS-V survey during ~2020-2025, along with the expected AGN science. shenyue@illinois.edu Session and Talk: 301.02 - June 3 (Wednesday) 11:30-12:00 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: W.N. Brandt ----- 15. AGN Dust Reverberation Mapping in the LSST Era Andrew Robinson, Rochester Institute of Technology; Triana Almeyda, University of Southampton The dusty circum-nuclear torus partially obscures the growth phase of supermassive black holes, is the key element of the unified model for Active Galactic Nuclei and is usually also the dominant source of their infrared (IR) luminosity. We will review progress in understanding this structure, with emphasis on what can be learnt from optical-IR reverberation mapping. LSST will provide optical light curves, but dedicated IR monitoring campaigns will have to organized to conduct dust reverberation mapping studies of AGN and other variable or transient sources. axrsps@rit.edu Session and Talk: 301.03 - June 3 (Wednesday) 12:00-12:30 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: W.N. Brandt ----- 16. AGN reverberation mapping with LSST and 4MOST TiDES: black hole masses, cosmology, and binary black holes Sebastian F Hoenig (University of Southampton), on behalf of the 4MOST TiDES collaboration In this talk I will present the AGN reverberation mapping (RM) programme as part of the 4MOST Time-Domain Extragalactic Survey (TiDES). With TiDES-RM, we will be spectroscopically monitoring up to 1,000 AGN in 4 extragalactic deep fields down to r < 21.2 mag (AB) with a cadence of ~14 days for at least 5 years. The start of the survey is well aligned with the start of LSST science operations and will make use of parallel LSST multi-band photometric light curves to establish an independent proxy for the emission line variability "driving" light curve. With these data, we will measure dynamical black hole masses out to at least redshift z~2.5 and use the emission line lags as standardisable candles for cosmology. Up to 100 targets will be selected from binary supermassive black hole candidates to establish their nature from the kinematic signatures seen in velocity-resolved reverberation. Finally, it is expected that a fraction of the regularly monitored sources show unusual behaviour (e.g. changing look or extreme variability) through the duration of the survey and the continued spectroscopic coverage will help in interpreting these phenomena. S.Hoenig@soton.ac.uk Session and Talk: 316.01 - June 3 (Wednesday) 2:50-3:20 Duration: 20 min (speaking) + 10 min (questions/discussion) Session Chair: G.T. Richards ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------------- Supermassive Black Hole Studies with the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST): Summary, Discussion, and/or Hack Session --------------------------------------------------------------- 17. Looking Forward - Summary, Discussion, and/or Hack Session W. Niel Brandt and the LSST AGN SC This time will be used for a forward-looking summary with discussion and/or a hack session, as judged most useful by the attendees from the LSST AGN Science Collaboration. wnbrandt@gmail.com Session and Talk: 316.02 - June 3 (Wednesday) 3:20-4:20 Duration: 60 min summary/discussion/hack-session time Session Chair: G.T. Richards ------------------------------------------------------------------------------